According to foreign media reports, researchers have recently discovered that if the world's known fossil fuel reserves are burned out, the earth will become more uninhabitable than scientists previously speculated.
According to reports, the world’s average temperature will rise by as high as 9.5 degrees Celsius, which is four times higher than the goal set by the Paris Climate Change Conference last December to limit the global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius; In the Arctic, where the global average is more than doubled, the temperature will rise unimaginably by 15 to 20 degrees Celsius.
Fossil fuels predicted to burn out at the end of the 22nd century
A research report published in the latest issue of "Nature Climate Change" (Nature Climate Change) pointed out that if the world's known oil, natural gas and coal reserves are burned out, they will release 5 trillion metric tons of heat-absorbing energy into the atmosphere. Carbon, of which carbon dioxide is the majority.
Researchers predict that if the existing fossil fuel consumption trends remain unchanged, the above situation will become a reality by the end of the 22nd century.
The United Nations has clearly pointed out that in order to more effectively hold the threshold of global warming not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, carbon emissions must be limited to 1 trillion metric tons.
Many scientists believe that if the global warming temperature exceeds 2 degrees Celsius, it will bring about various natural disasters such as drought, heat waves, and sea level rise. Only by controlling the warming temperature below 2 degrees Celsius can a relatively stable climate environment be maintained.
It is reported that the 5 trillion metric tons of carbon emissions predicted in the latest report is an extreme case, but experts believe that this possibility should not be ignored.
The lead author of the research report, Tocaska, a PhD student at the University of Victoria in Canada, told AFP: “We need to know what the consequences will be if we don’t take action to slow climate change.”
Previous studies have predicted that once carbon emissions reach 2 trillion metric tons, its role in pushing up global temperature will be weakened, and the rate of temperature rise will slow down. However, estimates made by Tocasca's research team using the latest climate models show that previous scientists have overestimated the ocean's carbon absorption capacity, which will offset the slowdown in temperature rise after correction.
The old model predicts that if the global fossil fuel reserves are burned out, the temperature will rise by 4.3 to 8.4 degrees Celsius; in the latest research, the temperature rise will be increased to 6.4 to 9.5 degrees Celsius.
Tocasca pointed out that although the 195 countries attending the Paris Climate Change Conference pledged to reduce emissions to keep the temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius, it is difficult to guarantee that they will keep their promise.
The first round of UN climate negotiations after the Paris Climate Change Conference opened in Bonn, Germany on the 16th. It is understood that procedural discussions have delayed the progress of the negotiations. Frolick, an environmental physics expert at the ETH Zurich, said: “Decision makers must be clear about the consequences if an effective climate policy is not formulated.”